Covid-19: The mystery of rising infections in India's Kerala

The southern Indian state of Kerala accounts for more than half of the country's new Covid-19 infections. The BBC's Soutik Biswas and Vikas Pandey report on why cases continue to rise in the state, months after the waning of the deadly second wave.

In January 2020, Kerala reported India's first Covid-19 case in a medical student who returned from Wuhan, in China, where the pandemic began.

The number of cases rose steadily and it became a hotspot. By March, however, half a dozen states were reporting more cases than the picturesque southern state.

Sticking faithfully to the contagion control playbook of test, trace and isolate and involving grassroots networks, Kerala brought down its case count drastically. There were breathless stories about the state flattening the curve. The first wave was protracted, but Kerala managed to control the spread of infection. The official death count remained low.

Infections rose faster during the deadly second wave this summer. And they show no signs of abating even as the pandemic wanes in other parts of the country.

With barely 3% of India's population, Kerala has been accounting for more than half of India's new cases.

The reproduction number of the virus - which explains a disease's ability to spread and estimates the number of people infected by one already infected person - has crossed one.

This indicates a growing number of cases which, in turn, require lockdowns and other measures to stem a tide of infections.

The percentage of people who test positive for the virus from the overall numbers being tested has hovered above 10% for a month. Kerala has recorded 3.4 million infections and 16,837 deaths from Covid-19 so far.

But these disturbing numbers don't tell you the whole story, say epidemiologists.

Kerala, they say, is testing a lot more people - more than double the people per million compared to the rest of the country. It has kept infection levels in control.

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The state is capturing one out of every two infections compared to other states which are catching one out of 30-odd infections. "Kerala is testing more, and testing smarter. By tracing contacts to find out real cases, testing is also better targeted," says Dr Gagandeep Kang, one of India's top virologists.

The latest  antibody tests survey reveals that only 43% people above the age of six in Kerala have been exposed to the infection, compared to 68% nationwide.

This, many believe, proves that Kerala has done an admirable job in controlling the spread of coronavirus unlike the rest of India.

Also, despite the rising number of cases, hospitals have not been overwhelmed. Kerala's case fatality rate is a third of India's national estimate; half of the Covid-19 beds in hospitals are free; and under-reporting of Covid-19 deaths is possibly the lowest in the state, according to a report.

Also, Kerala has fully vaccinated more than 20% of its people and 38% - including 70% of people over 45 years - have received a single jab, much higher than the national average.

So the state appears to be testing widely, reporting cases honestly, vaccinating quickly and ensuring that hospitals are not overwhelmed. Future waves of infection will not be "as severe as the second wave, given the pace at which Kerala is vaccinating its population", reckons Dr Rijo M John, a health economist.

Yet, epidemiologists worry that Kerala's apparent success does not tell us the whole story.

For one, a large number of people remain susceptible to the virus. "This is likely to be driving the pandemic in the state now," says Dr Gautam Menon, a disease modelling expert.

There is also risk in "letting people get infected, even while preventing deaths", says virologist Shaheed Jameel.

And that risk is of long Covid - long-term problems after recovering from the original infection - which afflicts up to a third of those infected, including asymptomatic patients.

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Dr Menon says a prolonged pandemic could mean the possibility of more mutations of the virus, leading to the emergence of new and dangerous variants which could spread the disease to the unvaccinated and uninfected people. "This is a time for caution. Kerala's main focus should be to bring down case numbers."

Many say Kerala needs to be wiser and more forceful while enforcing rolling lockdowns - the state has allowed festivals to go ahead, leading to mass gatherings and risks of increased infections. Virologists say Kerala also requires a more granular data on targeted testing and increased genome sequencing to find out where the infections are rising the most and to track new variants.

"If there is one thing which we should have learnt from India's pandemic by now, it is to treat narratives of exceptionalism with caution," says Dr Murad Banaji, a mathematician at London's Middlesex University, who has been tracking the pandemic closely. Clearly, Kerala might not turn out to be an exception.

Excerpt from BBC News Homes......

 

Tokyo Olympics: Chinese nationalists turn on their athletes

 

The pressure on Chinese athletes to perform has never been higher. Anything less than a gold is being seen as athletes being unpatriotic by furious nationalists online. The BBC's Waiyee Yip reports.

China's mixed doubles table tennis team made a tearful apology at the Tokyo Olympics last week - for winning a silver medal.

"I feel like I've failed the team... I'm sorry everyone," Liu Shiwen said, bowing in apology, tears welling in her eyes.

Her partner, Xu Xin, added: "The whole country was looking forward to this final. I think the entire Chinese team cannot accept this result."

Their finals loss against Japan in a sport they usually dominate had left many online furious.

On microblogging platform Weibo, some "keyboard warriors" attacked the pair, saying they had "failed the nation".

Others made unsubstantiated claims of referee bias towards Japan's Jun Mizutani and Mima Ito.

As nationalist fever continues to sweep the country, racking up the Olympic medal tally has become much more than just sporting glory.

For the ultra-nationalist crowd, losing an Olympic medal is akin to being "unpatriotic", experts told the BBC.

"To these people, Olympic medal tables are real-time trackers of national prowess and, by extension, of national dignity," said Dr Florian Schneider, director of the Netherlands' Leiden Asia Centre.

"In that context, someone who fails at a competition against foreigners has let down or even betrayed the nation."

The table tennis match was an especially bitter pill to swallow because it had been a loss to Japan, with which China shares a tumultuous history.

Japan's occupation of Manchuria in northern China in 1931 before a wider war began six years later, killed millions of Chinese. It is still a sore point between the two nations.

To Chinese nationalists, then, the match was not just an athletic event, Dr Schneider said. "It's a stand-off between China and Japan."

Anti-Japanese sentiments on Weibo ran high throughout the match, as users called Mizutani and Ito all manners of names.

But it's not just Japan - or table tennis.

China's Li Junhui and Liu Yuchen were targeted online when they lost their badminton doubles final to Taiwan.

"Are you guys not awake? You didn't put in any effort at all. What crap!," one Weibo user said.

Tensions between Chinaand Taiwan have soared in recent years.

China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province, but many Taiwanese people disagree and want a separate nation.

Other targeted athletes included sharpshooter Yang Qian - despite her taking the Tokyo Games' first gold medal.

Her downfall? An old Weibo post where she had showed off her Nike shoe collection.

People were not pleased, given how the brand is among those boycotted for its pledge to stop using Xinjiang cotton over forced labour concerns.

"As a Chinese athlete, why do you have to collect Nike shoes? Shouldn't you lead the way in boycotting Nike?", one comment read.

Her teammate Wang Luyao also faced anger when she failed to make a spot in the women's 10m air rifle final.

"Did we send you to the Olympics to represent the country just to be weak?", one comment said.

Criticism of her was so overwhelming that Weibo  suspended the accounts of some 33 users, local media said. 

'Little pinks'

Given the competitive nature of the Olympics, people getting upset over any losses is, of course, hardly unique to China.

In Singapore, star swimmer Joseph Schooling received harsh trolling after failing to defend his 100m butterfly crown last week.

The censure got so vile that several government leaders, including President Halimah Yacob, came out calling for support for him.

But the outrage seen online in China is arguably more pronounced, and not just because its population is massive and Internet-savvy.

"The so-called 'little pinks', or youngsters with strong nationalist feelings, have a disproportionate voice online," said Dr Jonathan Hassid, a political science expert at Iowa State University.

"In part, this voice is amplified because legitimate criticism of the state is increasingly unacceptable."

Nationalism in China has risen sharply in recent years as its global influence grows and any international criticisms are seen as attempts to target its development.

The Olympics also came hot on the heels of the China Communist Party's (CCPS) 100th anniversary celebrations on July 1, where President Xi Jinping made a defiant speech about how China would never be "bullied" by foreign powers.

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Vitaly Shishov: Head of Belarusian group missing in Kyiv

 The head of an organisation helping Belarusians fleeing abroad has gone missing in Ukraine.

Vitaly Shishov, head of the Kyiv-based Belarusian House in Ukraine, was reported missing by his partner after failing to return from a jog, Reuters news agency quoted police as saying.

His organisation said a search of the area in which Mr Shishov normally ran had failed to find any sign of him.

Many Belarusians have left the country after a violent crackdown last year.

Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania in particular have become favoured destinations for those fleeing persecution following a disputed presidential election in Belarus in August 2020.

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• Friends of Mr Shishov reported that he had been followed recently,Belarusian journalist Tadeusz Gizcan said in a tweet 

         on Monday.

• He added that Ukranian border forces had been made aware of the case.

  The Belarusian House in Ukraine provides support to new arrivals in finding accommodation, jobs and legal advice, its website says.

  The news comes the same day as a Belarusian athlete competing in the Tokyo Olympics was granted a humanitarian visa from Poland after refusing her team's order to fly home early.

  Sprinter Krystina Timanovskaya, 24, said she had forcibly taken to the airport for criticising coaches, and voiced fears for her safety.

• Earlier this year, there was an international outcry over the detention of opposition Belarusian journalist Roman Protasevich and his girlfriend, after the Ryanair plane they were travelling on was forced to land in the country.

Excerpt from BBC News Homes......

Afghanistan: Street fighting rages as Taliban attack key city

Ferocious fighting is taking place in a major Afghan city, amid fears it could be the first provincial capital to fall to the Taliban.

Lashkar Gah in southern Helmand province is under heavy assault from the militants, despite persistent US and Afghan air strikes.

The Taliban are said to have seized a TV station. Thousands of people fleeing rural areas took shelter in buildings.

"There is fighting all around," a doctor told the BBC from his hospital.

Hundreds of Afghan reinforcements have been deployed to battle the militants.

The Taliban have made rapid advances  in recent months as US forces have withdrawn after 20 years of military operations in the country.

Helmand was the centrepiece of the US and British military campaign, and Taliban gains there would be a blow for the Afghan government.

If Lashkar Gah fell, it would be the first provincial capital won by the Taliban since 2016. It is one of three provincial capitals under attack.

An Afghan military commander in the city warned that a Taliban victory would have a "devastating effect on global security".

"This is not a war of Afghanistan, this is a war between liberty and totalitarianism," Maj Gen Sami Sadaat told the BBC.

On Monday, the Afghan information ministry announced that 11 radio and four television networks in Helmand province had stopped broadcasting due to what it described as Taliban "attacks and threats".

Attempts by the militants to capture Kandahar, Afghanistan's second-largest city, have continued after rocket strikes hit its airport on Sunday.

Seizing control of Kandahar would be a hugely symbolic victory for the Taliban, giving them a grip on the south of the country.

In a third besieged city, Herat, in the west, government commandos are battling the insurgents after days of fierce fighting. Government forces have taken back some areas after a UN compound was attacked on Friday.

Videos shared on social media appeared to show residents on the streets and rooftops of Herat shouting "Allahu akbar" ("God is greatest") in support of the government's gains.

As government forces struggled to contain Taliban advances, President Ashraf Ghani blamed the sudden withdrawal of US troops for the increase in fighting.

"The reason for our current situation is that the decision was taken abruptly," he told parliament.

Mr Ghani said he had warned Washington that the withdrawal would have "consequences".

Although nearly all its military forces have left, the US has continued its air offensive in support of government troops. Strikes targeting Lashkar Gah continued late on Monday.

President Biden's administration announced on Monday that because of the increase in violence, it would take in thousands more Afghan refugees who worked with US forces.The US and UK have accused the Taliban of committing possible war crimes by "massacring civilians" in a town captured near the Pakistan border.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had seen reports of "deeply disturbing and totally unacceptable" Taliban atrocities.

Gruesome videos that emerged from Spin Boldak apparently showed revenge killings. The Taliban have rejected the accusations.

Excerpt from BBC News Homes......